In 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a nationwide anti-corruption campaign, which he used to eliminate his rival, Bo Xilai, and capture the presidency and the position of general secretary. For four years he has been steadily rooting out barriers to his power throughout the government. The 19th Party Congress will begin in October 2017, bringing the retirement of several top officials and marking the halfway point of Xi's tenure as the Communist Party's general secretary. In the coming year, Xi will escalate the anti-corruption campaign to unprecedented levels to intimidate and eliminate potential political rivals.
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) announced Dec. 6 that it would finish inspecting all 280 government bodies by the end of 2017, having already investigated 149 since late 2012. Of the remaining 131 organizations, the CCDI will investigate at least 100 in 2016. The hectic and broad CCDI investigations will likely force targeted groups to take desperate action, including bribery or murder, and will enable ambitious cadres to hijack the process to further their own interests. Xi will need to proceed carefully to avoid destabilizing the party structure while strengthening his hold on it.
Meeting the anti-corruption campaign's goals will take a toll, both within the CCDI and on the Communist Party and government as a whole. As more political factions are scrutinized and possibly eliminated, many will become desperate. As in the past, targets will probably offer enormous bribes, both to the increasingly strained inspection personnel and to the lower-level CDIs that support them. Investigation targets could also retaliate with violence, as they did in the murder of investigators in Shantou in 2000. Already in 2015, there have been mysterious deaths connected to corruption investigations. With the increased pressure in 2016, more might be compelled to risk the consequences of violence.
Regardless, Xi and the CCDI will push forward with the new inspection targets. The 19th Party Congress is too important for Xi, who must staff the party with his allies while freezing out his political rivals. For each budding or established political faction in China, the risks ahead of 2017 are great, but the rewards are greater.
