ASSESSMENTS

In Mozambique, a Rigged Election Risks Opening Pandora's Box

Oct 21, 2019 | 13:10 GMT

Posters for Renamo's presidential candidate, Ossufo Momade, line a wall ahead of Mozambique's Oct. 15 polls. Reports of election tampering will undermine the government's peace deal with Renamo, its longtime enemy and political opponent.

(GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Revelations of election fraud could prompt the Mozambique National Resistance Movement to pull out of its recent peace deal with the government, potentially leading to a return to low-intensity conflict in the central provinces.
This could distract Maputo from the ongoing insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost Cabo Delgado province, which poses an increasing threat to the country's multibillion-dollar energy sector.
A failure to fundamentally tackle the deep drivers of the northern conflict will also erode support for the long-ruling Mozambique Liberation Front, possibly leading to a weaker performance in future election cycles.

The ballots from Mozambique's Oct. 15 general election are still being tallied. But all evidence so far points to another sizable victory for the Mozambique Liberation Front, commonly referred to as Frelimo. Such an outcome was expected, given that the ruling party's dominance over the country's political and economic systems since the mid-1970s. Indeed, despite the introduction of multiparty democracy decades ago, Frelimo continues to reign over the country -- much to the chagrin of the militant Mozambique National Resistance Movement (Renamo). Despite Maputo's recent peace deal with Renamo, mounting evidence of electoral misconduct indicate the Frelimo government is still waging a covert war against its chief political rival. In response, Renamo could send its fighters back to battle in Mozambique's central regions, which would risk distracting Maputo from a much greater threat brewing up north. ...

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