ASSESSMENTS

Mugabe Roils Zimbabwe's Succession Waters

Nov 13, 2017 | 09:00 GMT

Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, addressing supporters on Nov. 8.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe addresses supporters on Nov. 8, two days after firing his vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mugabe's decision changes the trajectory of Zimbabwe's political transition.

(JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's dismissal of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa fits his strategy of pitting would-be successors against each other and expelling those he deems too ambitious.
  • While Mugabe may consider elevating his wife to vice president, liberation-era party politics may dictate that his successor not emerge from his family.
  • Despite Mnangagwa's alleged support from within Zimbabwe's security services, any attempt at a palace coup d'etat would be extremely difficult to execute and would likely fail.

What Zimbabwe lacks in a functional and sizable economy, it more than makes up for in palace intrigue. The country's potential presidential succession was jolted Nov. 6 when longtime President Robert Mugabe sacked his vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who then fled into exile. Arriving five weeks before the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front is scheduled to hold an extraordinary party congress Dec. 12-17 to "harmonize" party divisions, Mugabe's decision changes the trajectory of Zimbabwe's political transition as the country moves inexorably beyond the only post-independence president it has known....

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