In Nagorno-Karabakh, the Possibility of Escalation Lingers

Tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues to build over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Skirmishes on the front lines March 29-30 resulted in several casualties, and Azerbaijani Defense Minister Col.-Gen. Zakir Hasanov stated March 31 that Azerbaijan would "soon liberate all occupied territories" in the region. While a large-scale military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan on par with the 1988-1994 war over Nagorno-Karabakh remains unlikely, further escalations in the region cannot be ruled out. However, certain warning signs — such as a mobilization of troops and pre-positioning of supplies, as well as heightened diplomatic activity among regional players — would likely precede such escalations.