The United States and Ethiopia, along with its other regional allies, are rethinking their strategy in Somalia, as faith in the ability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide stability continues to wane. The TFG's backers are all focused on containing Somali jihadist group al Shabaab, which remains the strongest force in southern Somalia as well as many portions of Mogadishu. Plans formed in 2009 to launch a massive TFG military offensive against al Shabaab throughout Somalia have given way to a new plan to isolate the jihadist group inside the Baidoa-Kismayo-Marka triangle. This means a strengthening of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is likely, with the aim of diminishing al Shabaab's presence in the capital, but it also means Ethiopian forces will continue to maintain a presence along the border. Addis Ababa will also continue to support its Somali militant proxy, Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah, as a buffer force. The new strategy has a political component as well. Washington intends to increase diplomatic contacts with the breakaway regions of Somaliland and Puntland as a potential model for Somalia in the future, and is considering replacing the TFG with a smaller, more technocratic entity when the TFG's mandate expires in August 2011.
