Guidance

The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Leave Global Tourism and Trade Ailing

Evan Rees
Asia-Pacific Analyst, Stratfor
Jan 30, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Cleaners wearing protective masks clean the gate in the arrival hall at a Hong Kong rail station on Jan. 29, 2020.

Cleaners wearing protective masks clean the gate in the arrival hall at a Hong Kong rail station on Jan. 29, 2020. The impact of the new coronavirus on trade and tourism around the world could be enormous.

(ANTHONY KWAN/Getty Images)

The effects of the new coronavirus are not just limited to public health. Any dip in Chinese economic growth and outbound tourism will have ripple effects in countries that rely on trade with China. The existing global economic slowdown prior to the outbreak has already done a number on the likes of export-oriented economies worldwide, but the possibility of a drop in Chinese tourist numbers or a blow to Chinese economic growth could sap tourist revenue around the world, particularly in East and Southeast Asia. The next phase of the outbreak will be critical to determining the success of interventions to stop the spread of the virus and limit its impacts outside China. But even in an optimistic scenario, the effects of the virus will last for weeks, raising the possibility of sustained, monthslong disruptions to growth in countries linked to the Chinese economy. ...

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