Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga raised the possibility Sept. 9 of Japan stationing government officials on the disputed islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, which would mark an escalation in the longstanding territorial dispute between the two countries. Clearly Japan believes that China's increasing tempo of maritime activity around the islands reveals Beijing's intent to assert its territorial claims more aggressively, as it has already done in the South China Sea. Though Tokyo backtracked on the proposal Sept. 11, if carried out, concrete actions to shore up Japanese sovereignty claims could pre-empt China in the Senkakus. For its part, China believes that any Japanese construction or permanent stationing of people on the island would be a provocative encroachment and undermine China's attempt to enhance its physical presence surrounding the island. Already, with Chinese and Japanese patrol ships and now aircraft constantly running through the island chain, the two sides risk collisions or clashes that could spiral out of control as a result of heightened tension on both sides.
If Japan seeks to change the disposition of public personnel or facilities on the island — and it is by no means clear yet that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will follow through on this proposal — then it would have calculated that it is no longer in its interest to be as accommodating as it has been toward China with regard to the islands. It also would mean Tokyo has decided it is capable of weathering China's reaction, whether it should come in the form of trade sanctions or even more active demonstrations of maritime power. Such a shift would also complicate Japanese relations with the United States, which has attempted to moderate the stances of both countries and would not like to have its security commitment to Japan put to the test as a result of precipitous actions or reactions by either Tokyo or Beijing.
