ASSESSMENTS

Lebanon's Prime Minister-designate Faces Long Odds

Jan 10, 2020 | 09:00 GMT

Marchers take to the streets of Beirut on Dec. 30, 2019, to express their displeasure with Lebanon's poor economy and government paralysis.

Lebanon's prime minister-designate, Hassan Diab, will unlikely be able to solve the government dysfunction and enact needed economic reform. This means that the pan-sectarian protest movement that has staged demonstrations across the country will likely continue to march.

(ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Hassan Diab, who is set to become Lebanon's new prime minister, will not overcome the country's political, economic or security challenges.
  • Prolonged political paralysis will heighten Lebanon's economic crisis, and potentially spark violence as major factions like Hezbollah struggle to hold onto power.
  • Heightened tensions between the United States and Iran could also lead to more sanctions on Lebanon, or even to open conflict there.

Lebanon's new candidate for prime minister, Hassan Diab, stands little chance of breaking Lebanon's political deadlock. And he will face even greater challenges than political paralysis, such as a worsening economic crisis and security crises as Hezbollah turns to stronger tactics to maintain its influence and as the chances grow of a U.S.-Iran regional conflict that could draw in Lebanon....

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