A New Oil Dispute Between Sudan and South Sudan

As South Sudan and Sudan attempt to work out a more permanent settlement regarding oil revenue and border demarcation — the current agreements expire in three and a half years — both countries, but especially Sudan, may use deliberate disruptions to oil flows as leverage in negotiations. The South Sudanese government on May 20 accused Sudan of blocking South Sudan's oil from flowing through Sudanese pipelines to the Heglig oil processing plant, a key location along the contested border. The blockage, which reportedly began May 17, is the first significant dispute between the two countries since they signed a deal in March allowing South Sudan to bring its oil production back online. Given the countries' economic codependence and the current pressures facing each, most of the oil will likely continue to flow. But oil from one area in particular — South Sudan's Unity state — will face a higher risk of disruption given the state's lesser importance to overall revenues, which make it more suitable for attacks, sabotage and political maneuvering.