GRAPHICS

A New Tropical Wave in the Gulf of Mexico

Jul 21, 2010 | 19:40 GMT

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(Stratfor)

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave, Invest 97, that has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. The wave has become less organized as it has moved over the island of Hispaniola, so it is not expected to become a tropical depression July 21, and the Air Force has suspended its reconnaissance mission for the day. But the weakening does not rule out the possibility of further organized development as it moves northwest toward the Bahamas on July 22, since weather conditions are seen as favorable. Some projections of the system's path have it moving west of Florida toward the oil slick from the BP Deepwater Horizon incident's site, which is worth monitoring because a tropical storm or hurricane coming even within hundreds of miles of the leak can generate waves that could complicate containment and cleanup efforts. BP is in the process of conducting crucial tests on its newest cap system, as well as approaching the final lap in drilling the relief wells to plug the well from below, so now would be an exceedingly bad time to suffer interruptions.