COLUMNS

Nicaragua's Hard Road Ahead

Scott Stewart

VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Jun 26, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

Anti-government demonstrators carry homemade mortars, as they stand near a barricade in Masaya, Nicaragua, on June 5.

Anti-government demonstrators carry homemade mortars, as they stand near a barricade during protests in the Nicaraguan town of Masaya on June 5. As protests continue in Nicaragua, the country's security is likely to worsen before it improves.

(INTI OCON/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Nicaraguan protesters are voicing their strong opposition to President Daniel Ortega's rule in a number of cities, but the leader is unlikely to even consider resigning until the demonstrations have a greater impact on the capital, Managua.
Because of the entrenched nature of both the protesters and the government, Nicaragua's security will likely worsen before the situation improves.
Companies operating in the country would be well-advised to review their security and draw up contingency plans.

Negotiations have broken down, and the violence shows no signs of abating. Church-brokered peace talks between the Nicaraguan government and the demonstrators broke down on June 18 amid Managua's continued use of force against the protest movement. After taking to the streets in April in response to proposed social security reforms, protesters have now upgraded their demands for the departure of President Daniel Ortega and his wife (and vice president), Rosario Murillo. Whether the protesters ramp up the pressure on Ortega or vice versa, security in Nicaragua is only likely to worsen -- something that should give companies operating in the country pause for thought....

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