In Niger, Intervention Likely in Potential Tuareg Rebellion

A Nigerien rebel group has pledged to defend territorial gains made by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a Tuareg rebel group in neighboring Mali that recently wrested control of its traditional homeland, known as Azawad, from the Malian government. Composed of roughly 2,000 ethnic Tuaregs and Toubous, Nigerien rebel group Front for the Liberation of Air and Azawad (FLAA) said it would also defend northern Mali from militant Islamists.

Of all Mali's neighbors, Niger faces the greatest risk of spillover from the Malian Tuareg rebellion. In fact, the MNLA already has called for a Tuareg state that encompasses all of Azawad, which abuts the Nigerien Tuareg heartland that stretches from the countries' shared border to the largest concentration of Nigerien Tuaregs in the Air Mountains. Niamey also has a weak border and a lackluster military apparatus, and Niger's historical grievances with its own sizable Tuareg population further compound the risk of rebellion.

Yet a Tuareg rebellion in Niger would struggle to gain traction for several reasons. Nigerien Tuaregs are more politically and economically integrated into the state than are Malian Tuaregs. Unlike Malian Tuareg territory, Nigerien Tuareg lands are awash with valuable resources, such as uranium, which endears Niger to foreign countries operating in the area, especially France. While France has yet to advocate intervention during this period of insurrection, in the past Paris has responded militarily in Niger when the safety of its mining operations and its citizens have been jeopardized. With the FLAA and the MNLA operating so close to one another, there is the potential for rebellion in Niger, but any uprising there would be contained relatively effectively.