COLUMNS

Nigeria’s Election Will Threaten Its Security, Regardless of Who Wins

undefined and Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE
Ben West
Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Feb 12, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Side-by-side campaign posters line a bus stop for President Muhammad Buhari and his challenger, Atiku Abubakar, ahead of the presidential election on Feb. 16.

Campaign posters for Nigeria's incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari line a bus station above posters for his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar.

 

 

(PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The political flux surrounding Nigeria's upcoming election has created space for regional and sectarian conflicts to flare up.
  • The country's northeast region will face increased violence from Islamic State supporters, while a peace arrangement that has previously kept conflict quiet in the Niger Delta region is being put to the test.
  • While Islamic militants' expansion attempts could pose security threats to Abuja and Lagos, protests and political unrest following the election are far more likely to disrupt major urban areas. 
 

On Feb. 16, Nigerians will head to the polls to either re-elect incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari, or replace him with Buhari's lead challenger Atiku Abubakar. The upcoming election has thrown the country into a state of political flux, risking the relative stability Nigeria has achieved since returning to multiparty democracy in 1999. But in addition to the direct political implications, growing unrest across the country also creates an environment where Nigeria's many regional and sectarian security threats could fester and spread in the weeks following the election. ...

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