Nigeria will likely enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production, while rising inflationary pressure will increase the risk of social unrest that could threaten President Bola Tinubu's reelection bid in January 2027. On March 31, Nigerian lawmakers approved a 68.3 trillion naira ($49.4 billion) budget for 2026, marking a 17% increase over the initial version presented by Tinubu to parliament in December 2025. While the majority of new spending is scheduled to be financed through additional external borrowing, lawmakers also approved a $10 increase in the country's oil price benchmark from $65 to $75 per barrel. This move comes as the Iran war and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent oil prices to around $100 a barrel, with physical barrels trading over $140 per unit in...
