In 2011, North Africa exploded into global headlines. The reverberations of the so-called Arab Spring were felt throughout the Islamic world and beyond: The change in civilian leadership in Egypt had many international leaders questioning the future of the linchpin of the Arab world. In addition, a NATO intervention in Libya removed the government of Moammar Gadhafi after more than 30 years of rule. The effects of the Arab Spring have not yet faded. Syria's civil war is still unfolding, and Tunisia, Libya and Egypt are still in the midst of either defining a post-revolutionary state or adjusting to the region's changing expectations of their governments.
The Arab Spring did not take root in North Africa by accident. The area's geography and the geopolitical limitations placed on the region's capitals prevent North African governments from effectively containing rising social dissatisfaction and unrest.
Mountains, Deserts, Sea: The Geography of North Africa
Occupying the northwestern corner of the African continent, Morocco and Algeria constitute the largest coastal plain in the Arab world. Precipitation caused by the Atlas Mountains has created a relatively fertile strip of land between the coastline and the edge of the mountain range — where most of the populations of Morocco and Algeria live. The terrain south of the mountains is relatively arid and, due to the consequent difficulty of establishing large-scale agriculture, sparsely populated. Morocco lacks Algeria's expansive southern desert regions, but the western stretch of the Sahara is largely uninhabited except for towns built around oases, and the desert's artificial colonial-era boundaries are difficult to discern, let alone secure.
The Atlas Mountains extend eastward and terminate in Tunisia, whose population has settled along the country's eastern coastline in myriad ports. Together, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia form the region known as the Maghreb, anchored by the Atlas Mountains and united by both geography and centuries of shared patterns of European and Ottoman domination.
Libya occupies the space between the Maghreb and Egypt. Lacking the geographical definitions of the Atlas Mountains and spanning a large expanse of desert, Libyan society has remained much more tribally focused than populations in either the Maghreb or Egypt. Libya's two major metropolitan areas — Tripoli and Benghazi — are separated by a broad expanse of desert, further cementing the divisions so apparent within Libyan society.
Stratfor's organizational understanding of North Africa excludes Egypt for several reasons. Egypt's political and cultural ties are much stronger to the broader Middle East. Strong Fatimid and Ottoman legacies — including al Azhar University, a leading center of Sunni Islamic learning — have endured despite Egypt's own colonial legacies. Egyptian arts and media are broadcast throughout the Arab-speaking world but face competition within the Maghreb from other domestically produced media representing the blending of European, Arab and Berber cultures. North Africa uses a different form of Arabic then Egypt (and the rest of the Middle East), separating the two. Geography again underpins these distinctions; Egypt's Nile-based demographic core is separated from Benghazi by a vast desert. While this geography is far from a perfect barrier, Egypt has found it much easier and more geopolitically compelling to look eastward rather than engage its distant western neighbors.
The Maghreb and Libya's coastal cities all benefited from the rich maritime trade activities that dominated the Mediterranean economy from late Antiquity through the 16th century. As long as the European consumption of goods from Islamic lands continued, North Africans stood to prosper through trade and piracy. Fortunes changed with Europe's imperial expansion into the New World, and Europe's Mediterranean powers — Spain, France and Italy — moved quickly into North Africa, either to secure the agricultural lands and resources or to eliminate threats from the region.
Challenges of Statecraft in North Africa
Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya all face the daunting task of managing significant coastal populations in countries mostly comprising semi-arid highlands and open desert. Though not impassible, North Africa's terrain makes infrastructure development difficult and costly. As a result, communities outside the coastal, or northern, population cores of North African states have traditionally found themselves outside the broader economic and political circles of the coastal elite. Whether in Western Sahara, southern Algeria or Libya, or even interior Tunisia, these southern regions range from poorer and less-developed areas to locales whose populations face active and institutionalized repression from the coastal capitals.
For decades, these more mountainous and desert regions have been home to either ethnic minorities (very often various groups of Amazigh Berbers) or more traditional, conservative Muslim populations. Both groups often waged insurgencies against the coastal-based governments and other native targets as well as fighting across the porous borders of North Africa and the Sahel. The geography that impedes North Africa's capitals from integrating their interior populations facilitates rebel and militant movements, making it easier for them to seek sanctuary.
Aside from Libya and Algeria's energy wealth, North Africa is largely resource-poor. It is also difficult to develop and prone to unrest (and subsequent strong reprisals). It is no wonder that North Africa — specifically Tunisia — was the cradle of the Arab Spring. Poor economic conditions and high unemployment among a young and disenfranchised population provided a ready foundation for an uprising, following Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation on Dec. 17, 2010, in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. Bouazizi's response to what he viewed as an overreaching and degrading state bureaucracy that benefited only an elite few touched on broader themes throughout the Arab World. From Morocco through Egypt, the same leaders, chosen in largely pre-determined elections or appointed by shadowy and pervasive military institutions, had ruled governments for decades.
Hailed by the West as bastions of stability and partners in the global fight against jihadist militancy, the states with a more pronounced geographic core — Morocco and Algeria — remained largely intact. However, Tunisia's and Libya's national leaders and their political machines and patronage networks were ousted by popular uprisings and — in Libya's case — a NATO intervention. What the Arab Spring has shown, especially in the case of Libya, is the difficulty in ruling a North African state, absent a centralized authority backed by not only a capable military or security apparatus but also economic and political patronage networks.
Continuing Economic Pressures and Instability
A persistent complaint from North Africans concerns the lack of economic opportunities in the region, exacerbating the economic constraints of regional geography. Algeria possesses the largest regional economy — twice the size of Morocco's and nearly four times as large as Tunisia's — and is driven by exports of crude oil and natural gas. Algeria's energy sector has financed the continent's largest defense budget and increased social spending, underwriting Algeria's stability. Morocco's economy has been more diversified but less robust: tourism, phosphate exports and agricultural and fishing activities have provided the kingdom with modest growth. The lack of domestic energy supplies and a population still dependent on imports of foodstuffs has necessitated a stronger alignment between Rabat and the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council.
Among the Maghreb states, Tunisia is the most dependent on foreign investment. However, Tunis was able to develop strong institutional control over workers, tying together private business ownership, organized labor and government objectives into a carefully balanced patronage network and large state bureaucracy, rather than adopting the more robust military apparatuses of other North African states. Libya's large oil reserves and small population — the smallest in the region — led to relative increases in infrastructure and the development of the small, urbanized population centers along the coast. Yet, with the removal of the previous state management system, Libya's economic potential lies largely untapped. Various stakeholders are currently involved in an extended, well-armed stalemate over the future control of Libyan resources.
Economic stability and revitalization will remain critical to stability in the region, as Algeria struggles to retain regional influence and all the North African states deal with increasing militant activity. Economic and political reform will come slowly to a North Africa faced with few options and many threats. The West has a strong desire to see a return to normalcy across the Mediterranean, a region that is a significant supplier of both energy exports and immigrants into Europe. However, the region remains in flux. The Arab Spring is a symptom — not a cause — of a larger regional shift in rising populations of young people, aging authoritative leaders and a geography that makes unifying and ruling these countries difficult and expensive. The spread of a more conservative form of Islam is also hampering economic growth, especially in places like Tunisia, trying as it was for decades to encourage economic growth through tourism. While outside countries push regional capitals to offer safer and more stable investment environments, the same areas that once linked transcontinental trade now risk becoming conduits for transnational jihadists eager not only to establish emirates at home but also to spread their influence beyond the nebulous boundaries of the Sahara.
The world will continue to watch North Africa. The question of political transition (and possible economic reform) in Algeria, Libya's threat to regional stability and the future of Morocco and Tunisia will all affect strategic decision-making within these countries as well as abroad. As it has for much of the past 1,000 years, North Africa's geographic proximity to the Middle East, Africa and Europe — now tinged with volatility — will make outsiders wary but will not keep them from seeking opportunities.
