ASSESSMENTS

In North Korea, Kim's Rumored Ill-Health Renews Succession Fears

Apr 21, 2020 | 18:46 GMT

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un waves from his car after arriving in Vietnam on Feb. 26, 2019.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un waves from a car after arriving in Vietnam on Feb. 26, 2019. 

(Linh Pham/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Conflicting media reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is in declining health have raised questions about succession and regime stability, but there are few signs of expected political or social instability. 
  • With Kim having no children old enough to take over, however, there is far more uncertainty around what would happen upon his death than during the waning days of his father, which saw an escalation in tensions with China and South Korea, as well as heightened weapons testing.
  • Given these stakes, it is crucial to consider the plausible outcomes should Kim be incapacitated, which include a takeover by his sister, a shift to collective leadership, or the long-feared collapse of North Korea.

Recent reports of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's failing health have once again raised concerns around succession and regime stability, particularly as he has no children old enough to succeed him. Kim, however, has gone missing in the past, and there are few other signs of a brewing political or social crisis in North Korea that would indicate an imminent end to his reign. Indeed, in the coming days or weeks, he may again be spotted watching rocket launches through his binoculars, or visiting a construction or factory site to show his care for the people. But it is nonetheless still important to review succession scenarios due to the outsized risks of such a political transition in Pyongyang. ...

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