PODCASTS

North Korea, Military Parades and the Projection of Power

Feb 9, 2018 | 17:43 GMT

North Korean Military Parade

KCNA/AFP/Getty Images

North Korea held its annual military parade a day before the opening of the 2018 Winter Olympics just 40 miles from its border with South Korea. While the timing was no surprise, in this episode of the podcast we take a closer look at the messages Pyongyang meant to send as well some of the hardware they chose to put on display.

We also dive into renewed discussions about reviving military parades in the United States, how they’re used as a projection of power and why the United States moved away from them in the past with Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker and Asia-Pacific Analyst Evan Rees.

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Transcript

Eugene Chausovsky [00:00:00] Hello, I'm Eugene Chausovsky, a senior Eurasia Analyst at Stratfor, and this podcast is brought to you by Stratfor Worldview, our premier digital publication for objective geopolitical intelligence and analysis. Individual, team, and enterprise memberships are available at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe.

Rodger Baker [00:00:30] We've seen the North Koreans exploit this Olympics to try to drive a little bit of a wedge between the United States and the South Koreans, at least in their consistency of how to deal with North Korea. In the end, it's South Korea that is the primary battlefield of any conflict.

Ben Sheen [00:00:56] Welcome to the Stratfor podcast, focused on geopolitics and world affairs from stratfor.com. I'm your host, Ben Sheen. In this episode of the podcast, we look at the purpose and perceptions of military parades, from North Korea's latest annual parade, a day ahead of the Winter Olympic Games, to a new discussion, or debate, depending on where you're sitting, on whether the United States should bring back military parades as a projection of power. For an in-depth look at North Korea's parade, the significance of what was on display, and what messages it was meant to send, we're joined by Stratfor vice president of strategic analysis, Rodger Baker, and Asia-Pacific analyst, Evan Rees. Thanks for listening. Unless you've been living under a stone for the last couple of days, it's probably hard to escape the fact that we are kicking off the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in South Korea. And as is the way, it's traditional to start an Olympic Games with a parade to begin the event. But just north of the border, in Pyongyang, North Korea's been holding a parade of its own. What I'm interested in is why now, and what's the significance of this military parade in North Korea.

Rodger Baker [00:02:02] I think when we look at the why now, we have to understand that February 8 is traditionally in North Korea the day that marks the foundation of the Korean people's army. There's also an April date that they celebrate, and that was the day that they founded the anti-guerrilla forces. And a few years ago, Kim Jong-un actually changed the priority from the April date, which for a few decades had been the most important date in Korea, to the February date, this year being the 70th anniversary of the founding of the KPA. And so they decided to move the parade there to match that quote auspicious date that they have. Part of it is about reinforcing, in North Korea, the idea of the continuity of the regime, as opposed to keeping things just as being an anti-guerrilla force, this is about it's a state, it's a nation in and of itself, and part of it is there certainly was the politics when they looked at this, and they knew when the Olympics were coming, but this might be a good time just to remind the rest of the world that they're still there.

Evan Rees [00:02:59] We haven't seen a military parade in North Korea since last April. They've done two ICBM tests since that time, so this is an opportunity to show that off before they go into the Olympic season.

Ben Sheen [00:03:09] Certainly as Rodger mentioned, it's an opportunity for North Korea to flex a little bit of military muscle, and kind of show the world that it should be taken seriously. Now, certainly during the Cold War, when Russia used to do its military parades, it was always an opportunity to see what was on show, see how certain technologies, vehicles, platforms, were developing. Since the last parade, have we seen any differences in what the North Koreans have rolled out?

Evan Rees [00:03:31] They rolled out their Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15, which were the two ICBM systems that they tested in July and November, so we got to see those for the first time. We got to see them on their tells as well, which gives them ability.

Ben Sheen [00:03:42] It's a transporter or it's a launcher, right?

Evan Rees [00:03:45] Exactly. But then on top of that, we had a new system appear, and it looks like it's modeled off of a Russian 9K720 Iskander. This emphasizes their tactical ability to strike back at South Korea, should the United States carry out a military strike on North Korea.

Rodger Baker [00:04:02] If you look at that, there's a couple things that we saw. Number one, when we're seeing these new larger ICBM systems, there were several systems that were absent from the parade, and those are ones that have had a poor record of tests. So in this, the North Koreans are showcasing what is actual, rather than what is theoretical. Number two, we often see systems in here that come before they're fully battlefield tested, and this is their, or not necessarily battlefield tested in the case of North Korea, but fully tested. And this is where this Iskander knockoff appears to come in. We haven't really seen tests of these, we don't know whether this is or isn't what it looks to be, but we can anticipate that coming out of the next month or so, we're going to start seeing an uptick of these short-range missile system tests. Then the final thing that was interesting here is most of the missiles this time were basically painted in drab, or in black, or in black and white, and instead of having big names written across them, which we've seen in recent parades where they put the name of the missile on them, they simply had a serial number on them. So again, it's this way of focusing on the idea that these are weapon systems, they're not just show pieces, they're not just things to trade away, this is part of the North Koreans military arsenal, and it's not something that's going to just be given up by the North Koreans.

Ben Sheen [00:05:14] It seems in every sense that North Korea is posturing itself to be taken more seriously as a conventional military power.

Evan Rees [00:05:20] This underscores what they've been saying since October. They announced in October that they've completed their state nuclear force, and Kim emphasized it again in his New Year's speech, and they're underscoring it again here.

Ben Sheen [00:05:31] As you mentioned at the start, Rodger, the timing, it's important internally to North Korea, but the fact that the world's attention is really focused on South Korea for the Olympic Games, this can't really, it's not just coincidence, right?

Rodger Baker [00:05:43] It's not just coincidence, certainly again. The North Koreans are not idiots, the South Koreans have planned to host the Olympics for a very long time. These things are known far in advance, so the North Koreans did do this somewhat intentionally. They had options and ways they could play with this. We've seen the North Koreans exploit this Olympics to try to drive a little bit of a wedge between the United States and the South Koreans, at least in their consistency of how to deal with North Korea. Then this parade provided another opportunity to reinforce those realities. In the end, it's South Korea that is the primary battlefield of any conflict, so they're the ones who are most worried about the idea of imminent strikes between the United States and North Korea, between any bloody nose strike action the US may be contemplating. They're the battlefield, and they're the ones who are struggling here the most with this.

Ben Sheen [00:06:30] It seems like a timely reminder that certainly for the past year, there world's attention has really been focused on North Korea's long-range capability, its intercontinental ability, whereas actually this parade reinforces the fact that they do have a short- medium-range capability, and a conventional force that could really wreak havoc in South Korea if it ever came to that, correct?

Rodger Baker [00:06:49] Well, if you look at the short-range capability, if these are similar to the Iskendar, then they have better guidance than we've seen in previous short and medium-range North Korean missiles. They also have maneuverability in their final phase. These are the systems that you would use to try to strike at US anti-missile systems in South Korea, and to try to strike at US airfields in South Korea, and to try to strike at any place that's going to be used as re-supply in South Korea. Again, these are a demonstration that the North Koreans are showcasing how they would respond in real conflict, not just a theoretical deterrent threat, saying that maybe they can drop a nuke on Des Moines.

Ben Sheen [00:07:29] Not sure if we have the answer to this, but obviously this system is very similar to the Iskander, how did they stumble upon this? Was this an internal system, did they have some help? How do we think this came through development?

Rodger Baker [00:07:40] The first thing that we have to understand is that we have seen tubes with fins on trucks. They look like Iskanders. That doesn't mean that they are. And again, most of the missiles you'll see in these parades are mock-ups. They're not rolling the actual systems down the street, and we haven't seen much of a testing cycle of something like this. The North Koreans have other, similar, Russian-based short-range systems, much shorter range, and these may be modifications on those systems, or aspirational modifications on those systems. It could be that they've somehow managed to get additional plans from the Russians, or from third countries that are utilizing these. Could be that they're just trying to do their own mock-ups and knockoffs of something that they've seen that they know people are going to be aware of and understanding what the concepts and capabilities are, so we really won't know until we start seeing testing cycles.

Ben Sheen [00:08:36] Certainly as the competing nations in the 2018 Winter Olympics form up in South Korea, ready to compete, the echoes of the parade will certainly be a reminder of what is awaiting across the border. In part two of the podcast, we dive right into the debate over whether the United States should begin holding military parades of its own as a projection of power, and why the US typically chooses not to. If you're enjoying the conversation and Stratfor's independent approach to these issues, you can find a broader analysis of global affairs with a close look at what's next in regards to North Korea at Stratfor Worldview. If you're not already a Stratfor Worldview member, you can learn more about individual, team, and enterprise access at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe. Now to part two of our conversation with Stratfor's Rodger Baker and Evan Rees. Rodger, Evan, we were talking previously about the nature of military parades, specifically the most recent parade in North Korea. It's a topic of conversation both domestically in the United States as well as overseas, and certainly US president Donald Trump has talked about possibly reinstating US military parades. What's a good way to think about this?

Evan Rees [00:09:54] There are parallel cases throughout the world, of course France is the one that's playing in the media right now, that's what the president saw during his visit in France, he saw the Bastille Day parade, and he said, "I want something like that in the United States." But there are other parallels as well. Finland does an annual Flag Day military parade, Italy does a Republic Day parade, and then in addition to that, Mexico has its Independence Day military parade, Spain has one as well, and Greece also has an Independence Day parade. There are parallels in other democratic countries that kind of fit the bill for what he's looking for.

Rodger Baker [00:10:26] The difference in the United States, and this is something that's been discussed many times even before this president, and it's caught up a lot in the politics of this president in particular, which is making the attention to the call for the parade seem much more extreme than it might be under a more centrist president, or someone who people sort of felt that they could understand better. In some cases, we're seeing this being taken to sort of extreme ideas of oh well, this is proof that America is going to a dictatorial system, or a Mussolini style system or something like that, and that's taking it way too far. But in America, if you think about American culture, and the history of America, America's a country that's founded on the idea of removing that sense of imperial power, of removing that dominant centrist force in a nation. We have parades all the time, and military parades all the time in America around Fourth of July, around Veterans Day, around Memorial Day, but they're usually local, they're usually community parades, or in cities that have key military facilities or National Guard facilities. We diffuse the idea of military power in the United States. Even if we know conceptually that the military is a centralized organization and is designed to push American power abroad, domestically, we don't really feel like one, we need to show it off, and two, that we really want to see tanks rolling down the streets of Washington. It goes against some of the core concepts or underlying themes of American history.

Rodger Baker [00:11:57] It doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong. It doesn't mean we haven't had victory parades in the United States following certain wars, it doesn't mean we don't have Fourth of July parades all over the place, and even in Washington, D.C. But it's one of those dichotomies of the American psyche, that on the one hand we're probably one of the most militaristic nations in the world, and active in more countries in the world than just about anybody, maybe even than France, but on the other hand, we're a country that doesn't necessarily feel comfortable constantly showing that off or making it look like the military is running the country. You even heard this from past presidents, where you have former military presidents who were worried about the idea of this concept of military industrial complex being dominant in America.

Ben Sheen [00:12:41] And it's an interesting idea, the optics of it. Because there is no dispute that America is the most militarily capable nation on Earth. You only need to travel past a military airbase, or go overseas and simply see the amount of material that the US can bring to bear. You're right, if you've got it, why flaunt it? Does America actually need to have columns of tanks driving down the street? Everyone kind of gets the fact that the US is very credible.

Rodger Baker [00:13:07] It also goes back, similar to that. You think about the walk softly, carry a big stick. It is that walk softly element. Again, we're a nation that, at its core, while we're very proud of our military, while we utilize the military, we like to perceive ourselves as the city on the hill, as the bastion of democracy, and especially if you think back to the Cold War, the idea of those military parades was about centralized power and authoritarianism. And in America, we're trying to show the antithesis, and this is also why, at this particular moment in political history in America, when the idea came up, it's raising those hackles immediately to the idea of celebrating our armed forces.

Evan Rees [00:13:52] Certainly when you look at the set of case studies that I brought up, a lot of those countries have a long history of the military playing this strong role in centralizing the country. Mexico, of course, Spain, in different contexts, Italy as well.

Ben Sheen [00:14:05] Yeah, and I can't lie here, I'm British, obviously, we have regular military parades, often for remembrance or memorial days. But it is interesting how, again, with the evolution of conflict, looking back to the global war on terror, there's an argument to be made that actually, platforms are less important than people, and a lot of the decisive action on the ground was carried out by individuals, often these rough, bearded men with night vision gear going into the fray, so to speak. Clearly platforms are important for projection, but do you think that the perception of military power and the way that we show it has changed in the modern era?

Rodger Baker [00:14:39] Platforms still show power, an aircraft carrier shows power more than a sailor shows power. Even if it's the sailors who make the aircraft carrier viable. A Chinese carrier and a US carrier are entirely different things, not because the platform is different, but because the naval tradition and capability is completely different. In America, even though we've been engaged in a 17 year war now, the number of people who have family members who are directly impacted by that consistent conflict is fading. There's a whole debate going on in America at the moment on the ideas of patriotism, the fear of nationalism, and the show-off of military hardware seems to raise those fears that this is nationalism and not merely patriotism. Those who argue in favor of it argue the patriotism has been fading so much in America that we almost appear to be an apologetic nation, apologizing for who we are and for what we are, and that we're not standing up for our own rights, and I think that's what played out in the last election in many ways, and that's what comes back to this question, is a military parade necessary? Probably not. Is there in the American people some element of a need to reassess whether or not we're properly respectful of the military individuals, the people who contribute their life, their time, their commitment to the defense of the nation? Probably. And that's where we get down to this strange moment where the president may or may not have told his people we want to have a parade like the French.

Ben Sheen [00:16:12] It's an interesting thing to think about, that at a time when Russia and China are militarily posturing that perhaps a military parade might be comforting for the nation. Rodger, Evan, thank you so much for joining me to talk through this today, and I look forward to having you in the studio again.

Evan Rees [00:16:24] Thank you so much.

Rodger Baker [00:16:25] Thanks.

Ben Sheen [00:16:33] That's it for this episode of the Stratfor podcast. For our latest analysis of North Korea, the political games underway at the 2018 Winter Olympics and more, remember to join us at Stratfor Worldview. You can also find a complete, interactive transcript of this conversation on our podcast page. That's at worldview.stratfor.com/media/podcasts. Worldview members can also contribute to this conversation and engage with Stratfor's analysts, editors, and contributors in our members-only forum. If you have an idea for a future episode of the podcast, or just want to share your thoughts on a topic, email us at podcast@stratfor.com, or leave us a review on iTunes or wherever you subscribe. We really appreciate your feedback. For more geopolitical intelligence, analysis, and forecasting, to reveal the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events, follow us on Twitter @Stratfor.