ASSESSMENTS

For Now, Militia Leader's Posturing Unlikely to Affect Libyan Oil Exports

Nov 4, 2014 | 22:52 GMT

Libyan Militia Leader's Posturing Unlikely to Affect Oil Exports
A picture taken on Aug. 6 shows a Libyan oil tanker arriving at the port of Tripoli.

(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Libyan rebel leader Ibrahim Jadhran, a militia commander whose forces currently control some of Libya's most important energy infrastructure, announced Nov. 1 that he would not surrender control of Libya's eastern oil terminals to Operation Dawn despite an offer of power and money. The Tripoli-based Operation Dawn has installed a rival government under the previously dissolved General National Congress — a direct challenge to the elected Tubruq-based House of Representatives — and controls much of western Libya.

Jadhran's politically savvy announcements are meant to remind Libyan stakeholders and the international community that he controls almost half of Libya's oil export capacity. Jadhran is putting himself and his followers, who support a federal political structure with greater power to local governments, particularly in the east, in a stronger negotiating position. Knowing how much the Tubruq leadership depends on his cooperation, Jadhran is likely to continue leveraging his loyalty to extract political concessions but is unlikely to disrupt Libyan oil exports suddenly in the near future.

Ibrahim Jadhran is using his status to gain political concessions but is not likely to shut down operations at the terminals he controls....

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