COLUMNS

Now or Never: Israel Makes Its Move Against Iran

undefined and VP of Global Analysis
Reva Goujon
VP of Global Analysis, Stratfor

May 17, 2018 | 16:47 GMT

In this photograph, Russian military police guard a road outside Damascus, Syria, after it reopened May 15, 2018.

Russian military police guard a road outside Damascus, Syria, after it reopened May 15, 2018.

(LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • An unusual set of circumstances is enabling Israel to scale up attacks against Iran in Syria and risk a broader confrontation in the process.
  • As Israel raises the stakes in its conflict with Iran, it will look to lock in U.S. security commitments in the region for the long haul.
  • The White House's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal is a long-shot bet on regime change at odds with U.S. attempts to reduce its military burden in the region.
  • Russia's bark is often worse than its bite, but it will retain the clout to narrow the scope of U.S. and Israeli ambitions against Iran.

"Better now than never." These were the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent tweet affirming his country's resolve to block Iranian aggression at any cost. Perhaps no statement could better encapsulate the Israeli mindset at this time. When else will Israel have the ear of a U.S. president willing to tear up a diplomatic deal and double down on Iran, the freedom to strike with impunity against targets in a state already ravaged by civil war, and a young Saudi prince willing to openly collaborate with the Jewish state against the Islamic republic?...

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