ASSESSMENTS

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at 50

Apr 29, 2018 | 19:12 GMT

U.S. President Bill Clinton and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev shake hands at the White House on Feb. 14, 1994, after Nazarbayev presented Clinton with Kazakhstan's accession to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

U.S. President Bill Clinton and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev shake hands at the White House on Feb. 14, 1994, after Nazarbayev presented Clinton with Kazakhstan's accession to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Kazakhstan was one of three newly independent states that inherited hundreds of warheads from the former Soviet Union but chose to give them up.

(LUKE FRAZZA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The nuclear nonproliferation regime has been remarkably successful in severely limiting the emergence of new nuclear weapons states. The United States has been the key player in these successes.
  • Looking ahead, however, growing great power competition, increased degrees of freedom among regional powers, and more ubiquitous knowledge of nuclear technologies and delivery systems are all acting to weaken the treaty.
  • Vulnerabilities for proliferation are greatest in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.
  • Given the power shifts in these critical geographies, the United States will increasingly be at loggerheads with Russia and China when it comes to ensuring nonproliferation compliance among regional actors.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman caused a media stir in March when he warned that Saudi Arabia will develop a nuclear weapon if Iran does, raising the troubling possibility of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. "Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb," the crown prince told the CBS news program "60 Minutes," "but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible." Salman's remarks came as President Donald Trump is considering pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal and amid tensions over North Korea's nuclear weapons testing. Nuclear proliferation has reentered the heart of the global security discourse....

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