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The Numeric Problem
Senior VP of Strategic Analysis, Stratfor
Here at Stratfor, we are in the midst of creating our annual forecast for 2017. Each time we build one of our forecasts -- whether it is a view of the next quarter, year or decade -- we also review our past performance, focusing on what we got wrong and what we missed in an effort to improve our processes. One question routinely comes up as we re-evaluate our approach: How can we relay our level of confidence in our predictions to readers?
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Here at Stratfor, we are in the midst of creating our annual forecast for 2017. Each time we build one of our forecasts -- whether it is a view of the next quarter, year or decade -- we also review our past performance, focusing on what we got wrong and what we missed in an effort to improve our processes. One question routinely comes up as we re-evaluate our approach: How can we relay our level of confidence in our predictions to readers?...
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