The Numeric Problem

Here at Stratfor, we are in the midst of creating our annual forecast for 2017. Each time we build one of our forecasts -- whether it is a view of the next quarter, year or decade -- we also review our past performance, focusing on what we got wrong and what we missed in an effort to improve our processes. One question routinely comes up as we re-evaluate our approach: How can we relay our level of confidence in our predictions to readers?...