Contributor Perspectives

The Numeric Problem

Rodger Baker
Senior VP of Strategic Analysis, Stratfor
Nov 16, 2016 | 08:00 GMT
There is a certain freedom that comes with thinking beyond the confines of the quantifiable. It is how we evaluate our forecasts.
Here at Stratfor, we are in the midst of creating our annual forecast for 2017. Each time we build one of our forecasts -- whether it is a view of the next quarter, year or decade -- we also review our past performance, focusing on what we got wrong and what we missed in an effort to improve our processes. One question routinely comes up as we re-evaluate our approach: How can we relay our level of confidence in our predictions to readers?
(mindscanner/Shutterstock)

Here at Stratfor, we are in the midst of creating our annual forecast for 2017. Each time we build one of our forecasts -- whether it is a view of the next quarter, year or decade -- we also review our past performance, focusing on what we got wrong and what we missed in an effort to improve our processes. One question routinely comes up as we re-evaluate our approach: How can we relay our level of confidence in our predictions to readers?...

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