Obstacles to Scottish Independence

There is a notable trend in Scotland toward greater autonomy, but full independence is unlikely, despite recent moves in that direction. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond announced March 21 that Scotland will hold a referendum on independence Sept. 18, 2014, seeking to end its 305-year political union with England. The announcement came five months after Salmond and British Prime Minister David Cameron signed an agreement giving the Scottish Parliament the legal power to stage such a referendum.

There are several issues that Scotland would need to account for or overcome along the path to independence. First, the government believes that an independent Scotland would base its economy on North Sea energy resources, but that depends on three things: future oil and natural gas production levels, energy prices and a favorable resolution in disputes with London over the division of the United Kingdom Continental Shelf. Moreover, an independent Scotland would need to take care of its own army, reach trade and monetary agreements with London and negotiate EU membership. Finally, keeping Scotland within the United Kingdom is a strategic imperative for London, so Cameron's government will probably be willing to accept more Scottish autonomy to prevent independence.