Members of the OPEC+ coalition are not likely to alter the terms of their production quota deal when OPEC ministers gather Dec. 5 in Vienna, Austria.
When they meet Dec. 5-6, the members of the OPEC+ coalition are likely to agree to extend current oil production quotas until at least the end of June 2020 and possibly longer, despite renewed media chatter on Dec. 2 suggesting the Saudis are considering supporting a deeper cut in support of the Saudi Aramco initial public offering. This outcome is at least mildly bearish relative to current market positioning, given the probability of a return to global oversupply in the first half of 2020. Despite being relative price hawks since 2016, Saudi Arabia seems to have accepted that it is not in a position to push others to do more, even as the final IPO price of Saudi Aramco will be determined Dec. 5....
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