Pakistan: Between Democratization and Jihadism

Pakistan will hold parliamentary elections May 11 — the first vote held after a democratically elected government completed its five-year constitutional term. This democratic consolidation comes as the country faces the worst crisis since the secession of East Pakistan in the form of a ferocious jihadist insurgency. The vote comes amid economic difficulties and a major wave of jihadist attacks designed to undermine the democratic process targeting both secular and Islamist politicians campaigning for office. It is also the first election in which the emergence of a third national force, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, is seen as highly likely.

To the extent that opinion polls can be relied upon, the election will produce a much more fragmented legislature than the outgoing one, but conservative right-wing nationalist forces will dominate the new legislature. Regardless of its composition, the next coalition government will be tackling two core issues: security and the economy. Its policies will be greatly influenced by the regional security environment being shaped by the drawdown of NATO troops from neighboring Afghanistan.