On Nov. 2, some 60 people were killed and 130 others wounded when a suicide bomber blew himself up on the Pakistani side of the main Wagah border crossing with India during the daily flag-lowering ceremony held by Indian and Pakistani security forces. Multiple groups, including Jundallah and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, which are linked to al Qaeda and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, have claimed responsibility for the attack.
Since April 2009, Pakistan has been on the offensive against jihadists based in its northwestern Pashtun areas, especially the tribal belt along the border with Afghanistan. These jihadists and their allies want to create an Indo-Pakistani conflict, which they could exploit in their efforts to weaken the Pakistani state and establish an emirate or caliphate. But Pakistan's military and intelligence offensive has disrupted such jihadist aspirations. Yet on Sept. 4, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the formation of a new entity called al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent.
Although India has been alarmed at the creation of a new jihadist structure that could attack its territory, a spokesperson for the group said its priority is Pakistan. Still, the newly formed al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent has not demonstrated any significant capabilities and has not reduced the competition among jihadists in Pakistan that has traditionally hindered the groups from making significant gains. Moreover, the group has not helped the Pakistani jihadist system recover from disruptions caused by the Pakistani military's Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan. Furthermore, the Nov. 2 suicide bombing at the Wagah border crossing is the first significant attack since the North Waziristan offensive began six months ago.
That the jihadists have only been able to carry out one major attack in response to the operation in North Waziristan underscores the weakness of the jihadist movement as a whole. That three separate Taliban splinter factions are claiming responsibility for the border crossing attack testifies to the group's internal divisions. Still, the fight is not over. Pakistan must follow through on its offensive in the tribal areas along the Afghan border, which will not be easy, and it must begin intelligence-based operations throughout the country if it hopes to completely eliminate terrorism within its borders.
