The ruling Pakistani Muslim League has responded to opposition groups by deploying troops to provide security in the capital. It did so under a constitutional stipulation that allows the government to use the armed forces to aid civilian law enforcement agencies. But the move has backfired in several ways. Most important, the government's reliance on the armed forces has enabled military leaders to revive their political influence, which was weakened during the administration of former President Pervez Musharraf. It had already gained considerable social capital, given its role in the decisive military offensive against jihadists in North Waziristan. Now that the government has sought its help to deal with the threats from opposition leaders Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri, the army has regained the role of political referee.
However, the military has no interest in derailing democracy. On one hand, it does not want to see democratic consolidation; on the other, it does not want the constitutional process to be so upset that it endangers the country. Military leaders have no desire to see Khan and Qadri advance their agendas.
Instead, the army would like to allow a standoff to develop, after which it can jump in, separate the two sides and steer them toward a compromise. While Qadri will be easy to persuade, Khan will be reluctant to back down from his demands for early elections. He feels confident that his party is best positioned to win mid-term elections and does not want to wait until 2018 to become prime minister. He feels his social and political capital will deteriorate by then; passion can be ephemeral, and his party will be judged by how well it runs the provincial government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Khan is hoping that there will be enough people on the streets long enough to force the army to press for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's resignation.
