ASSESSMENTS

In Papua New Guinea, Reality Will Dim Any Nationalist Dreams

Sep 6, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape (left) shakes hands with Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison as their wives look on in Canberra during July.

(MICK TSIKAS/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Papua New Guinea's small size and dependence on oil and gas extraction will limit Prime Minister James Marape's ability to win more beneficial deals without alienating foreign investment.
To mitigate the country's massive debt, Marape has also waded into great power competitions by appearing to openly court China for additional financial aid.
But in doing so, he'll have to tread carefully to avoid running afoul of Australia, which remains the country's largest trade and investment partner.
Meanwhile, Marape's political longevity is also in question given the country's deep internal fractures and no-confidence mechanisms that will come into play in late 2020.

Papua New Guinea's new prime minister, James Marape, is touting a more nationalist push on resources for his energy- and mineral-rich country and hinting at a rebalance in great power relations, vexing both foreign companies and regional heavyweight Australia. Since taking office in late May, Marape has launched a formal review into a multibillion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, threatened to seek Chinese help in refinancing the country's $7.9 billion debt and mulled an overhaul of the country's natural resource laws to increase Papua New Guinea's share of revenue. But despite his ambitious intentions, the eager new leader will find it difficult to take any of these efforts too far, because there's only so much the small resource- and aid-dependent Pacific country can push the envelope without jeopardizing its political stability and primary income streams....

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