The Islamic State's setbacks in the Syrian cities of Kobani and Deir el-Zour have been some of the most costly since the group declared itself the head of a caliphate. However, the militant group is hardly less dangerous, as its continued presence in vast areas of Syria attests. The Islamic State is particularly dangerous in eastern Homs province and may capitalize on recent infighting between the Syrian government and the Kurds in al-Hasaka.
Still, the extremist group is increasingly beleaguered in the face of rebels, Kurdish fighters and loyalists. The evolving situation in Iraq is also increasing the demand on the Islamic State's limited fighters and resources, spreading the group thin. Moreover, coalition air power has repeatedly struck the oil infrastructure controlled by the group, constraining its ability to finance itself. Ultimately, however, the greatest threat to the Islamic State is internal: Several reports point to dissent within the ranks and from the citizenry forced to live under the group's harsh rule.
In Iraq, the struggle to dislodge the Islamic State continues at a slow pace. The rapid advances made by the group last summer have been checked by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes coupled with various Iraqi ground forces. The coalition has also provided combat guidance, intelligence, training and logistics. Weapons such as MILAN anti-tank missile systems have been employed effectively by the Kurdish peshmerga because of the training provided. Iran has also been supportive of some Iraqi forces outside the structure of the U.S.-led coalition. Shiite militias, including newly minted volunteer battalions and professional and experienced units, have joined the fight. Their participation in Iraq has weakened the Islamic State, much as it did in Syria, enabling the group's opponents to displace militants from major population centers.
However, the military approach is only a partial solution to the larger problem of Sunni support for militants. Some elements of the Sunni tribal structure support Baghdad, and there are plans to create a national guard for each province to galvanize and organize Sunni support against the Islamic State in Iraq. But these plans are in their nascent stages and have not been executed in a way that would affect northern disposition. The fight against the Islamic State in the Sunni-dominated areas of Iraq will be a years-long fight. However, it will be hard for the various forces arrayed against the group to sustain their focus, since they, too, will deal with sectarianism, resource control and internal disputes over their own self-interests.
