Pearl Harbor: An Intelligence Failure That Lives in Infamy

It has been 75 years since Japan launched its surprise attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor, and in that time, the assault has lived in the infamy that President Franklin D. Roosevelt described. The events that unfolded on Dec. 7, 1941, have been the subject of intense scrutiny and countless rehashings through the years, noted as much for their military tactics as for their role in drawing the United States into World War II. But just as important as the attack and its aftermath are the dynamics that preceded them. Though the strike on Pearl Harbor came as a shock to the United States, it did not come without warning. For those of us in the business of forecasting, Pearl Harbor offers a sobering case study on the shortcomings of intelligence and prediction. ...