ASSESSMENTS

A Perfect COVID-19 Storm Closes in on South Africa

Mar 26, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (center) addresses the media in Pretoria after concluding a meeting with various business and political leaders on matters relating to the COVID-19 outbreak on March 22, 2020.

(PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

The South African government's recently announced austerity budget is no longer tenable as the calls for fiscal stimulus increase alongside growing COVID-19 concerns.
The high incidence of HIV and chronic lung diseases in South Africa, especially among the country's poorer and uninsured populations, could allow for the virus to spread quickly.
Such a widespread outbreak would further strain the already limited capacity of the country's health care sector, while also exacerbating racial and income inequality.
To mitigate the imminent economic and political fallout, the South African government will have little choice but to cave to some of the demands of public unions, such as delaying proposed wage cuts in the public sector.

With only 709 confirmed coronavirus cases as of March 25, South Africa may be lagging a few weeks behind the outbreaks now unfolding in Europe and North America. But when the pandemic does eventually hit the country, it will hit hard. With high rates of people living with HIV or tuberculosis, much of South Africa’s population is immunosuppressed and thus believed to be at risk of dying or in need of significant medical care if they contract the virus. Such a widespread outbreak could, in turn, quickly collapse the country's already fragile health care system and economy, forcing the government to abandon its new austerity budget for expensive relief efforts....

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