The Persistence of Yemen's al Qaeda Branch

Unmanned aerial vehicle strikes in Yemen have spiked dramatically since late July, roughly coinciding with threats reportedly issued by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The al Qaeda franchise in Yemen promised to attack Western interests and seize oil and natural gas infrastructure throughout the country, and though neither threat materialized, the United States took them seriously enough to close 19 embassies in the Middle East and Africa, and militants did kill some guards near a Yemeni pipeline in an isolated incident.

Based on the militant group's objectives, capabilities and resources, a large-scale attack and seizure of oil and natural gas facilities in Yemen is unlikely in the near term. However, it remains the most capable of al Qaeda's regional franchises and can be expected to continue its attacks on pipelines and on security, military and intelligence personnel as well as the kidnapping of foreigners for ransom.