The Philippines Commits to Southern Offensive Despite Peace Effort

On Jan. 25, the Philippine National Police Special Action Force launched an operation into autonomous militant-controlled territory in the municipality of Mamasapano on the island of Mindanao to capture two terrorist targets: Malaysian bomb maker Zulkifli bin Hir, known as Marwan, and Filipino bomb maker Basit Usman. As they extracted, the police became locked in an exchange of fire with two rebel groups — the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters as well as a unit from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. By the end of the fight, 44 police commandos lay dead. The incident came at a sensitive time for Manila, as it nears the end of a peace process with Moro Islamic Liberation Front leaders following the signing of a landmark agreement in March 2014, a deal that the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters oppose.

Following the massacre, the Philippine military's western Mindanao command and Philippine National Police Special Action Force commandos launched a joint operation against Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters positions in Magundanao and North Cotabato, commencing Feb. 20. Simultaneously, Moro Islamic Liberation Front units in the area launched an assault of their own against Bangsamoro positions. The Liberation Front leadership insisted their fighters' role in the earlier massacre was the result of a miscommunication.

The impact of the massacre and the ongoing assault against the Islamic Freedom Fighters can be seen at the national level. Philippine President Benigno Aquino III's term ends in May 2016, and the peace deal is key to his legacy. The Aquino administration hoped it would be able to pass key legislation in early 2015 before campaign season gets into full swing and complicates the politics of the issue. But this has not happened yet. The current fighting jeopardizes Aquino's current timeframe for a peace deal that hinges on a legal amendment, but it does not jeopardize Manila's overall strategy to cut away at the Philippines' insurgency piece by piece.