On Geopolitics

The Pitfalls of Patterns in Geopolitical Forecasting

Rodger Baker
Senior VP of Strategic Analysis, Stratfor
Sep 19, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
Historical and other patterns point the way forward, but they don't provide a blueprint for forecasters.

Historical and other patterns point the way forward, but they don't provide a blueprint for forecasters.

(POR666/Shutterstock)

Patterns are paramount -- at least as far as geopolitical intelligence analysis is concerned. Whether the patterns are based on history, geography, stimulus and response or the like, they help us build theories and rules to simplify the world, make initial assertions and raise questions. Used effectively -- and critically...

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