A new phase in Thailand's political standoff has begun. During the week of March 28, the ruling military junta released a long-awaited draft of the country's new constitution, slated for a referendum in August. For more than a decade, centuries-old regional rivalries and political fractures have routinely paralyzed Thailand at a time of rising economic competition and immense regional change. Through it all, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been at the center of the unrest. A telecommunications tycoon, Thaksin's rapid rise to power and excessive corruption destabilized the elite-dominated system of checks and balances under which the country had generally flourished.
But since the country's military assumed power in a May 2014 coup, politics in Thailand have effectively been put on pause. Immediately after deposing the government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck, the military began to clamp down on dissent and dismantle Thaksin's Red Shirt support base, limiting the group's ability to organize the sort of mass protests that crippled Bangkok in 2009 and 2010. Even so, Thaksin has maintained enough popularity that his Pheu Thai party would almost certainly prevail in an election. Consequently, the ruling generals have been stalling a return to elections for as long as possible — or at least until Thailand's looming royal succession process is settled. For his part, Thaksin has tried to avoid giving the junta pretext to delay elections indefinitely by, for example, urging his supporters not to return to the streets.
As a result, a superficial calm has settled over Thailand. Capitalizing on the lull, the junta has centralized power and attempted to restructure the Thai political system to contain any Thaksin-aligned government that comes to power in the future. At the same time, the largely rural factions Thaksin united in his rise to power have been encouraged to move on without him. The junta's new constitution is central to both efforts. And so, when political disturbance inevitably returns to Thailand, it will likely be after the August referendum. Because the new constitution would prohibit any future government from making the concessions Thaksin needs to regain power, the referendum could be his last stand.
