GRAPHICS

The Potential for Change in the Yellow Sea

Dec 15, 2015 | 18:22 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Tensions remain high in the South China Sea, drawing a great deal of regional and international attention. But these Southeast Asian disputes are only part of the broader trend in the Pacific Rim. As China grows into a great power, it is pushing outward and disturbing the status quo across Asia. Because water defines the geopolitics of East Asia, Beijing's rise is impacting numerous maritime boundaries that once held solid or had simply been ignored.

One of these disputes is between China and South Korea over a rock in the Yellow Sea known as Ieodo-Suyan. This small landmass has been a point of contention since the 1990s. Beijing, however, may now be willing to make a concession to Seoul in the Yellow Sea to further solidify its position in the South China Sea.

South Korean and Chinese representatives will meet in December for talks aimed at demarcating their maritime border in the Yellow Sea — negotiations that will also determine ownership of Ieodo-Suyan. This dispute is unlike many other Asian maritime disputes, which normally center on islands, because Ieodo-Suyan is not an island but a submerged rock. Determining legal control of Ieodo-Suyan will be based on how territorial waters are delineated.

South Korea claims that Ieodo-Suyan falls within its continental shelf and that it is inside what would be a mid-point line between China and Korea. China claims that because Ieodo-Suyan is located on the shelf that extends from Chinese land, it should therefore be included within the Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone. But by offering territorial concessions to South Korea, Beijing may further reduce Seoul's interest in getting involved in the South China Sea disputes. While resolving such disputes is never easy, for China there are strategic reasons to take a more conciliatory approach in its talks with South Korea.