Assessments

The Promise and Peril of Libya’s New Cease-Fire

Nov 3, 2020 | 19:01 GMT
Representatives of Libya's rival administrations take part in a meeting in Temara, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2020.

Representatives of Libya's rival administrations take part in a meeting in Temara, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2020.

(FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images)

The launch of political negotiations under Libya’s new permanent cease-fire will create space to reduce hostilities between the country’s warring factions. But addressing the fractured political, economic and security dynamics of Libya’s ongoing civil war will remain significant obstacles to a comprehensive settlement and lasting peace. The longevity of the Oct. 23 cease-fire will largely depend on the progress and pace of those negotiations. Should they result in an outcome that goes against his political fortunes, Khalifa Hifter and his Libyan National Army (LNA) are likely to return to a coercive strategy in negotiations and may potentially disrupt them altogether....

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