ASSESSMENTS

The Protests in Nicaragua Are Bad for the President, Worse for Business

Jun 25, 2018 | 15:54 GMT

A protester with the April 19th movement in Masaya, Nicaragua, fires a homemade mortar into the air on June 18, 2018.

A protester in Masaya, Nicaragua, fires a homemade mortar into the air on June 18, 2018. Members of the uprising, which began in April, have seized territory across the country, including parts of the capital, Managua.

(MARVIN RECINOS/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • As protests continue nationwide in Nicaragua, factions in the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front may start to doubt the incumbent's suitability to run for re-election in 2021.
  • The country's persistent transportation problems and violence will subside if the rest of the ruling party manages to oust or sideline Ortega, in keeping with the protesters' demands.
  • Even if Ortega manages to quiet the protests in the coming months, violence could flare up again if he makes a bid for re-election in 2021 or if his wife, the current vice president, runs for the presidency.

In Nicaragua, there's probably no going back to the way things were. A two-month uprising has severely damaged President Daniel Ortega's standing with the private sector and with the country's voters. Almost 200 people have died since protests first broke out across the country in mid-April in response to a social security tax hike designed to prop up Nicaragua's public finances. Now Ortega is struggling against daily violent demonstrations and a fragmenting political base to preserve his presidency. He may yet subdue the current wave of protests, but the consequences will probably come back to haunt him before the 2021 presidential election....

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