Putting Russia's Crimean Intervention in Context

Russia's military intervention in Crimea and subsequent buildup of forces throughout the region has raised speculation that Russia could choose to intervene elsewhere in the former Soviet space, including in mainland Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia or perhaps even the Baltic states. There are recent historic precedents for Russian military intervention in all of these states. Examining previous interventions reveals that Russia follows a rigorous calculus and constraint-based strategy in each example, with important parallels in each case. These case studies not only give context for Russia's current position on each of these countries, but also provide signposts to look for in assessing the potential for and limits to any future Russian interventions.