Reassessing the Risk of Escalation in East Ukraine

The likelihood of a major escalation in the Donbas conflict remains low, but is trending upward amid Ukraine’s disregard of the Minsk agreements and Russia’s continued military presence in the disputed areas and near the Ukrainian border. On Oct. 30, the Washington Post reported that U.S. and European intelligence officials were concerned about a renewed buildup of Russian personnel and equipment near the Ukrainian border, saying the movements were irregular and had reignited the same concerns that arose in April, when Russian troops gathered at the Ukrainian border and left equipment and infrastructure prior to September’s Zapad 2021 exercise. ...