GRAPHICS

Rebel Groups on the Rwandan-Congolese Border

Jun 29, 2012 | 17:07 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Rebel Groups on the Rwandan-Congolese Border

A new rebel movement called M23 is forming in the easternmost region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Since June 20 almost 300 soldiers have defected from the DRC's military and are joining M23. The defections have complicated the deteriorating security situation in eastern DRC — a situation that Rwanda has been known to exploit in past decades. In May, the United Nations obtained evidence that high-ranking Rwandan officials were supporting and aiding M23. Rwanda's main concerns in eastern DRC are security-related. Exiled Hutu militias like the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, as well as any move to unify a strong force in the region, can threaten Rwanda and limit Kigali's ability to capitalize the DRC's natural resources, including gold, diamonds, cobalt, tin and other precious metals. The Congo rain forest, which lies between eastern DRC and the capital, presents a significant geographic barrier that makes it difficult for Kinshasa to project power into the periphery of the country. The lack of central authority has led to a power vacuum that threatens Rwanda's security but also provides opportunities that Kigali can exploit to its benefit. But as troops desert the DRC armed forces, Kinshasa has been forced to increase its presence in the east. Since Rwanda is much smaller than the DRC and could be easily overwhelmed if the DRC developed into a stable economic and military force, this is unacceptable for Kigali. Rwanda is therefore likely to continue supporting rebel groups like M23 in eastern DRC to perpetuate instability and protect its interests in the region.