While Israel and Hezbollah are ultimately interested in a negotiated solution, both are currently on an escalatory path that could shift their conflict from cross-border attacks to limited Israeli incursions within southern Lebanon and, in a low-probability but high-impact scenario, to a full-on war that could eventually also involve the United States and Iran. On June 18, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) approved operational plans for a cross-border operation into southern Lebanon, in the latest sign of steady Israeli intent to conduct major military operations to push the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah away from the Israeli border. On June 19, in a televised address, Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel with a war without redlines, should one be ''imposed'' on the group amid growing threats of an Israeli military offensive against Lebanon. The Hezbollah chief also threatened EU member Cyprus for the first time, declaring that if Cyprus allowed the...
