Recent Rebel Gains in Syria

The regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad is on the defensive. Aside from some search-and-destroy operations on the outskirts of the capital, government forces have been conducting offensive operations only in certain areas of the Homs governorate. Meanwhile, rebels have made notable gains in several regions of the country. Control of several key towns, military bases, supply lines and border posts appears to be within the rebels' grasp.

The regime still holds a large amount of territory and fields considerable forces, which the rebels would need to defeat to ultimately prevail. The regime may be facing dire circumstances, but it does not yet appear to be on the brink of outright collapse. But as rebel gains continue and the pressure on the regime grows, the likelihood of a military coup will increase.