Rekindling the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

Talk of renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is escalating, as are the tactical movements fueling concerns. Negotiations remain troubled, and despite communications between Kiev, its Western backers, separatists and Russia, hostility remains. The political status of the separatist regions and Moscow's broader regional imperatives continue to prevent true tactical de-escalation on the battlefield. Though violence never really disappeared, even after several cease-fire agreements that included the withdrawal of weaponry, both sides now appear to be increasing their ability to conduct armed operations again. Stratfor still does not foresee Russia engaging in a large military operation in Ukraine. However, the current instability and higher concentration of forces on the demarcation line may rekindle fighting with limited offensive operations in the coming weeks.