The Resilience of the Left in Latin America

Editor's Note: In Ecuador, the incumbent leftist government's hand-picked successor is leading in the polls and could be declared president within days. But depending on vote margins, he could face a runoff against a more conservative opponent. To add context to the election, we're republishing this report from September 2016 on the decline of the left in Latin America. Over the past few years, the left-wing governments that once dominated Latin American politics have receded in favor of more conservative, business-friendly administrations. If Ecuador's ruling Alianza Pais coalition is ultimately defeated, it would represent yet another loss for Latin America's left. 

The political tides have turned in Latin America. Over the past few years, countries that had elected left-wing populists now find themselves led by administrations at the center, and in some cases to the right, of the political spectrum. But the change of fortune may be short lived. The region has a historical predilection to populism, and given the economic inequality that still mars many of its countries, populist rhetoric will always appeal to impoverished voters.

Aspiring populist leaders will nonetheless have some pretty daunting challenges to contend with. Slowed growth in China, which bought en masse the commodities on which so many Latin American countries depend, has reduced the growth that supported the political patronage that characterized many populist governments. And just as important, when leftist leaders do return to power, they will probably have less money — which was once so critical to their dynastic success — at their disposal.