The risk of a U.S. attack on Iran will remain high in the coming days and weeks, with Tehran likely to calibrate its response to the severity of U.S. action while avoiding uncontrolled escalation unless the regime faces an existential threat. The deadly protests in Iran continue to rage on, raising the prospect of U.S. intervention. Internet connectivity has been largely shut off inside the country since Jan. 8, making it difficult to ascertain the size and scope of the protests and crackdowns. However, the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights Group reported on Jan. 13 that at least 648 people have died since the unrest began on Dec. 28, and that the death toll may reach as high as 6,000. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if peaceful protesters continue to be killed. On Jan. 13, he was briefed on kinetic and non-kinetic options -- including targeted...
