The likely adoption of France's 2026 budget will enable the minority government to remain in office until at least the next budget cycle, but entrenched political fragmentation will still limit room for substantive policy action and sustain the risk of a government collapse later in the year, which will keep France's fiscal trajectory uncertain and sustain market pressure on French sovereign debt into 2027 and beyond. France's minority government survived two consecutive no-confidence votes in the National Assembly on Jan. 23 after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu used Article 49.3 of the constitution to push through the revenue section of the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote. A motion tabled by the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), supported by the Greens and Communists, secured only 269 votes, falling short of the 288 needed to bring down the government, while a second motion brought by the far-right National Rally (RN) secured only 142...
