The Risks of Turkey's Policy in Syria

As the Syrian civil war intensifies, Turkey's support for Syrian rebels will continue to invite reprisal attacks. On May 12, a day after two car bombings left at least 46 dead in the Turkish border town of Reyhanli, Damascus strongly denied allegations that Syrian military and intelligence assets were behind the attacks. But the Syrian government's denial of responsibility should not be taken at face value. Several militant proxy groups in the border region benefit from the security vacuum in northern Syria and from Damascus' indirect sponsorship.

While these provocations underscore the risks Turkey is taking in Syria, Turkey will not undertake a military intervention if the United States continues its restrained policy toward Syria. Doing so would leave Turkey vulnerable to other security risks as it tries to negotiate the politically sensitive issue of a peace deal with the Kurdistan Workers' Party.