The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has poured vast reserves of funding, equipment and manpower alike into its war effort, and its economy bears the wounds to prove it, made worse by mounting Western sanctions. However, a largely qualitative analysis of Russia's economy suggests that Moscow could continue its war with Ukraine at current levels of intensity for at least another two to three years under current economic constraints. This extended timeline may reduce the Russian government's incentive to negotiate a political settlement as long as Western support for Ukraine does not force Moscow to dig significantly deeper into its dwindling resources....