ASSESSMENTS

Russia Approaches a Post-INF Arms Race in Europe With Caution

Sep 2, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

This photo shows a Russian 9M729 missile

The 9M729 missile demonstrated after a briefing for military attaches and international media by the Russian Defence Ministry at the Patriot Congress and Exhibition Centre in Kubinka, Moscow Region, on the 9M729 missile system; Russia does not recognize the USA's unilateral decision to quit the 1987 INF disarmament treaty (the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty). Sergei Bobylev/TASS (Photo by Sergei Bobylev\TASS via Getty Images)

(SERGEI BOBLEV/TASS via Getty Images)

Highlights

Land-based intermediate-range missiles could make a comeback in Europe in significant numbers, though this is unlikely in the short term.
Russia will likely decide that deploying such missiles, and so addressing NATO's advantage in air power and ballistic missile defenses, would outweigh a reciprocal U.S. deployment of those weapons in Europe.
Having largely succeeded at deflecting blame for the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty's collapse onto the United States, Moscow would work to maintain these perceptions as it builds up its missile arsenal.

With the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty officially dead, observers are watching to see whether the land-based intermediate-range missiles the treaty banned in Europe in the late 1980s will return to the Continent. The United States may have delivered the coup de grace to the treaty by announcing its intention to withdraw from it, but unlike in the Western Pacific, it has no immediate plans to deploy such missiles in Europe. Russia meanwhile has said it would make such deployments only if the United States did so first. Rhetoric continuing to blame the United States for the treaty's collapse and subsequent missile buildups would accompany any new deployments of intermediate-range missiles by Moscow....

Keep Reading

Proceed to sign up

Already have an account?