On Geopolitics

Russia Falls Into Old Habits

Lauren Goodrich
Senior Eurasia Analyst, Stratfor
Oct 25, 2016 | 08:02 GMT
Russia and its leaders are acting more aggressively at home and abroad, in keeping with a centuries-old cycle of boom and bust.
A sailor in Sevastopol holds the Russian flag at a one-year anniversary celebration of the March 18, 2014, Russian takeover of Crimea. Russia and its leaders are acting more aggressively at home and abroad, in keeping with a centuries-old historic cycle.
(ALEXANDER AKSAKOV/Getty Images)

Nearly 10 years ago, Stratfor published a series on Russia's historical boom-and-bust cycle. At that time, Russia was clearly at the height of a boom, rebuilding itself into a stable and robust power. Today, the country is quickly descending into the next, less pleasant stage. The strategy that revitalized the country is becoming less effective, forcing Russia and its leaders to act more aggressively at home and abroad. Though still assertive, Russia is no longer acting from a position of strength. The country may maintain some semblance of strength for years to come, but its fragility will eventually become apparent, forcing it into the next phase of the cycle....

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